Ten years ago, you could've argued that any type of major and sustained success for the Houston Astros would've been uncharted territory for them. After all, following the 2014 series this was a franchise that had won a grand total of three (3) playoff series and one (1) pennant over the course of 53 seasons of existence in Major League Baseball. Here in 2024, it's like the Astros know nothing but success — success and controversy, but that's besides the point for the time being. The point is that since the 2015 season, the Astros have been a Postseason fixture where they've won four pennants and two World Series titles in just nine seasons since.
As of right now, the Astros are currently in danger of heading into uncharted territory of the bad sort for them. After Tuesday’s action, Houston is sitting six games below .500 and seven games back of the Seattle Mariners at 28-34. They're also six games back of the Wild Card spot, and while you can easily argue that any talk about the division might be a bit short-sighted, the Wild Card conversation is one thing that stays relevant thanks to the new format. If you're struggling in that regard then things are definitely a little alarming. That’s where we are with Houston right now.
The Astros are struggling in both the division and the Wild Card and for the first time in a while, we might be gearing up for a Postseason that doesn't involve the heavy hitters from Houston. Again, there's still a lot of time left in the season but they've got to start rolling and rolling now if they're going to have a real shot at it. But as of right now, it's just been very tough for the Astros to get going in any facet of the game. They have a losing record in extra innings (3-5), they're struggling mightily in close games and especially in one-run games (5-13), it doesn't matter if it's day or night, grass or turf, right-handed pitcher or lefty on the mound, they just don't have a lane to cruise in at the moment.
The Astros are doing more than their fair share of hitting, as evidenced by the fact that (heading into action on June 4) they're hitting .258/.321/.417 as a team with an Isolated Power number of .159 and a team wRC+ of 112. The problem is that as good as their hitting has been (and even still, you could argue that it's underperforming compared to past seasons), that's how bad their pitching has been. Their pitching staff has an ERA- and FIP- of 110, which is good for being in the bottom-10 teams in all of baseball and even bottom-five when it comes to FIP-. This is largely due to the fact that Houston's starting pitching has been absolutely dreadful and depleted by injury.
Cristian Javier is set to have Tommy John surgery and it's equally unlikely that we're going to see José Urquidy any time soon due to forearm discomfort of his own. Luis Garcia is still on his way back from injury, so that means that three of Houston's best arms are currently dealing with injury issues and only one of them seems certain to return this season while the other two could be down for the rest of the season. That's an extremely concerning development for Houston and no team in baseball can testify to the injury issues that have been plaguing big leagues pitchers this season quite like the Astros can.
The pitchers who have been healthy for Houston simply haven't been getting the job done. Justin Verlander has looked old instead of like his old self, Framber Valdez hasn't looked like he did during his past two seasons where he was very reliable, Hunter Brown has not looked good at all this season and they've had to lean on guys like Ronel Blanco and rookie Spencer Arrighetti. No offense to the latter two pitchers mentioned but if those are the guys who are leading the way for your rotation, then it's not exactly looking great for your starting pitching situation — especially when one of those pitchers recently got caught using sticky stuff in the year of our Lord 2024.
As a result of what's going on, it's almost as if Houston's chances of keeping what feels like a perpetual spot in the Postseason are dwindling with each passing day. While FanGraphs is still currently giving them the second-best odds of eventually turning things around and getting into the Postseason, their overall playoff odds are currently well below 50 percent and dropping with each loss that they take. If they're going to get into the Postseason then they don't have to just worry about the Mariners at the top of the division at the moment — they've got to worry about leapfrogging teams that are closer to .500 or actually above it at the moment. Before they can even think about that, they've got to figure out a way to get some traction and stop spinning their proverbial wheels in the mud.
As far as the future goes, some teams are already placing their eyes firmly on the trade deadline and it sure seemed fascinating to imagine what the Houston Astros would do if they still found themselves in the mess that they're currently in. However, Astros GM Dana Brown went on MLB Network last month (when the Astros were nine games under .500 and in last place) and stated that he "couldn't envision” the Astros being sellers at the deadline and then recently doubled down in statements to Chandler Rome of The Athletic with them currently down double-digits below .500. Additionally, Jeff Passan of ESPN made sure to point out that it is not Astros owner Jim Crane's "style” to sanction a selloff at the deadline. To be honest, why would it be? After all, Crane has been the owner since November 2011 and after a few very lean years at the start, the Astros have been constant contenders since then.
Dana Brown also made sure to bring up to Chandler Rome the fact that we've seen stories of baseball necromancy, as the 2021 Atlanta Braves (where Dana Brown served as Vice President of Scouting) didn't go over .500 until August 6. It's certainly possible for a team to spend two-thirds of the season sleepwalking before going on a title run but that requires nearly everything to go that team's way (both with factors in and out of their control) in order for it to happen.
The Astros would need to not just get hot but also nail every deadline acquisition and hope that the Mariners slowed down and that the defending World Series champions Texas Rangers didn't wake up, either. As long as that happens, then the Astros aren't dead by any means and their front office has every right to suggest that they will be looking to improve at the deadline instead of being sellers. While they may not have a lot to deal from when it comes to their organization as they are paying the price for sustained success with their consistently-lowly rated farm system, that hasn't stopped teams in the past from picking up the phone and trying to swing a win-now deal in their favor. It appears that it won't stop Houston, either.
With that being said, there's no time like the present for Houston to finally begin their liftoff. We've seen crazier turnarounds in baseball history but hey have to start their turnaround soon if they're going to have any chance at this thing. Otherwise, this might go down as a rare season in recent memory where the road to the World Series in the American League doesn't go through Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas.
