The unveiling of the NBA schedule marks an excitement time for many fan bases. Oklahoma City Thunder supporters likely feel that way as well, but they are also keenly aware that this is a critical campaign.
The team is overflowing with talent and now has some vital experience under their belt after becoming the youngest No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season and competing in two rounds of playoff basketball. OKC still has more developing to do, but truly big things are expected this year.
Those words cannot just be freely proclaimed in the unrelenting West. They have to carry genuine weight. This group is perfectly capable of living up to the hype, though. While there are several franchises who possess the star power and past success to feel confident about their title chances, it is hard to identify one that filled its most glaring need as effectively as the Thunder did this summer.
Thunder head into 2024-25 season looking complete
It is not as if Mark Daigneault's squad merely froze in the face of postseason pressure. The Dallas Mavericks exploited their lack of size and willed their way to a six-game victory in the Western Conference Semifinals. Fans' biggest fear came to fruition, but the disappointing result motivated general manager Sam Presti to be especially aggressive in the offseason.
With center Isaiah Hartenstein signing a three-year, $87 million contract in free agency, the Thunder are arguably the most complete team in the West. Devising a plan to neutralize their depth will be frustrating, to say the least. Barring injury, OKC should surely be on the shortlist of championship contenders. But as the 2023-24 season showed us, forming preconceived notions about this tortuous conference is bound to backfire.
Thus, it is a good idea for us to take a deeper look at the schedule and see if there are any potential roadblocks that can prevent the Thunder's continued rise in the basketball world.
OKC's NBA Cup prospects
Even when greatness seems to be a guarantee, one missed opportunity could abruptly ruin a franchise's grand plan. The Minnesota Timberwolves took a sizable jump up the standings in their own right and dethroned the Denver Nuggets. They are just as hungry as the Thunder are entering this season. The Mavs are built for another deep run as well and already bested OKC once. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company are still looking for a signature moment.
It would help if it came before the playoffs. While many understandably shrug off the importance of the in-season tournament, there is ostensible value to faring well in it. Yes, winning the NBA cup did not boost the Los Angeles Lakers any closer to an NBA championship, as they were still ousted by the Nuggets in the playoffs, but one cannot ignore the positive effect that this competition had on the Indiana Pacers.
Tyrese Haliburton introduced himself to a national audience, and the rest of the team gained crucial confidence going forward. Although the addition of Pascal Siakam obviously went a long way in helping the Pacers reach the Eastern Conference Finals, the intangibles obtained from winning games in a heightened atmosphere surely played a role in their thrilling run.
Perhaps the same can apply to the Thunder. After winning 57 games in 2023-24, they do not need to undergo a coming of age moment, per se. Though, emerging victorious in a tournament that players themselves have admitted means something might allow them to take the next step even quicker than people anticipate.
The prize is not the NBA Cup. It is self-belief. No, that is not a fortune cookie assembled by Adam Silver. For this specific team, there is merit to outlasting the rest of the field in December.
Assessing key stretches in first half of NBA schedule for Thunder
Aside from the NBA cup games against the Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs , Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz, there are a couple of other interesting points on the schedule to dissect. Sandwiched in between West Group B battles with the Suns and Spurs is a highly anticipated postseason rematch with the Mavericks on Sunday, Nov. 17.
After seeing their championship dreams come to a crushing end on the free throw line in the American Airlines Center, the Thunder should be chomping at the bit for a chance to trounce the reigning Western Conference champs in the Paycom Center. It will be far too early in the year to properly gauge who has the edge between the two teams, but a win could be quite therapeutic for OKC. Exorcising demons right away is always ideal.
Even if it does dispatch of Dallas, however, there will be tough sledding ahead for this powerhouse. The Thunder play two four-game road trips in the span of almost a month (Nov. 25-Dec. 1, Dec. 5-20), with all but two of their opponents earning 46 or more wins last season. There can be a modification to the second extended trip if they are still vying for the NBA Cup, but either way, the early portion of the schedule packs plenty of adversity.
There are some notable homestands as well, including a particularly interesting five-game one that runs from late-December to early-January. The possibly rejuvenated Memphis Grizzlies, dangerous Timberwolves, unpredictable Los Angeles Clippers, dynamic New York Knicks and defending champion Boston Celtics all come into the Sooner State.
But the most eye-catching date on OKC's schedule, at least in the first half, is one that the NBA chose to leave empty. Astonishingly, a team favored to reach the NBA Finals is not included in the Christmas Day festivities.
It is no surprise that the league wants to milk the remaining years of LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant as much as possible, but it is also making it clear that it sees Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards as bigger draws than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. While there is no argument to be made when it comes to the French phenom, Ant-Man should be seen as comparable to SGA. Apparently, being the reigning MVP runner-up does not break the tie.
How the second half shapes up
Following the All-Star break, the Thunder's schedule will be defined by compelling back-to-backs. They will become well acquainted with the Timberwolves in February, playing them three times in an 11-day period. OKC will also get a look at the 2023 champs on March 9 and 10, as it welcomes in Denver for a pair in the Paycom Center. Since a showdown in the TD Garden versus the Boston Celtics follows these battles, this week could serve as a barometer of the team's postseason preparedness.
Though, the Thunder's final back-to-back of the year is important, too. At first glance, a home game against the Los Angeles Lakers on April 8 and a meeting in the desert with the Phoenix Suns on April 9 should be nothing to be particularly vigilant about. Oklahoma City ought to be cemented at or near the top of the West by then, with health likely being their primary concern this late in the campaign. But these two days could be a possible playoff preview.
I expect both the Lakers and Suns to once again straddle the line between the top six seeds and the NBA Play-In Tournament. If either of them settles into the latter, one of these games might turn out to be an opening round tune-up for the Thunder. Aside from seeding implications, it will probably not make sense for them to empty the tank just to earn a late-season victory. But sending a strong statement may prevent the Lakers or Suns from entering a potential matchup with momentum.
Predicting Thunder's final record for 2024-25 season
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There are obstacles galore in the Western Conference, with all-time greats and rising superstars shoving each other to get to the mountaintop. Given the maximum effort required to complete this ascent, even the most prepared and skilled climbers can stumble on their way up. OKC is surrounded by safety nets, though.
This is the year the franchise returns to the Western Summit. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is ready to lead the Thunder there, taking huge leaps over the last two years. Moreover, he has a stacked support system to lean on when defenses hold him in check.
Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren should be legitimate All-Star candidates, offseason additions Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein are essential glue-guy types, Lugentz Dort is a defensive pest on the perimeter and Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins all shot better than 41 percent from 3-point land last season.
This squad has the depth, versatility, a mandatory humbling playoff experience and someone on the roster who has already won a ring. Throw in a bit of injury luck, which admittedly it had an excess of in 2023-24, and you have everything one needs to hang up a banner.
Before that foremost dream can be achieved, though, the Thunder must prove they can keep gelling in the regular season. While the 2024-25 schedule is certainly intimidating, it contains a myriad of question marks.
The Clippers should drop a bit following the departure of Paul George, and the Nuggets lost another key piece themselves. Phoenix, LA and the Golden State Warriors are all still wild cards. The Grizzlies should bounce back from their rampant injury troubles, and the Spurs and Rockets should also improve. Dallas and Minnesota stand out as fierce threats and can each conceivably represent the West in the NBA Finals next June.
But I have the least questions about OKC, including in the regular season.
Final prediction: 59-23, No. 1 seed in West
